Donald Trump’s greatest political asset has always been his opponents’ underestimation of him. As he prepares to take office again, that asset is as great as ever. Counterintuitive as it seems, despite his greatest political win, and arguably America’s greatest presidential recovery, Trump’s opponents continue to act as though his success is a fluke.
Trump’s 2016 victory was unexpected by Democrats and the establishment media. To them, it and Trump were flukes: Hillary had lost more than Trump had won. They treated him dismissively throughout his term.
In 2020, the Democrats’ world righted. A global pandemic gave a rationale for intrusive government actions—something authorities in blue jurisdictions used to the hilt, even as any move by the Trump administration was criticized. The economic collapse that followed the nation’s lockdown was also laid at the Trump White House’s doorstep. When civil unrest roiled the nation; again, it was blamed on Trump, because somehow what had happened in Minneapolis was the president’s fault.
The Democrats were so sure they were going to win that they didn’t allow their candidate to campaign and have Joe Biden risk blowing it. When Democrats did win, they neglected to look at how close the outcome really was, because they didn’t want to see it — or admit it.
Instead, they told themselves that no one comes back from presidential defeat — only Grover Cleveland had over a century earlier. But just to make sure, Democrats impeached Trump a second time and unleashed lawfare on him over the next four years.
Throughout the campaign, they dismissed Trump, despite their lawfare campaign having no effect on him and their need to force their incumbent president out of the nomination they had already cleared for him. Even as their second choice stumbled, they refused to believe that Trump and his “garbage” supporters could win.
Now four years later and after Trump beat both their incumbent president and vice president, Democrats’ underestimation of Trump continues. It does despite his popular vote victory (the first by a Republican in 20 years), a third consecutive major-party nomination (the first since Franklin D. Roosevelt) and Trump’s increase in his popular vote percentage in three consecutive elections.
Democrat authorities vow resistance to Trump’s administration. What’s more, they are doing so over issues Americans don’t support: illegal immigration (Biden’s approval rating is 34.8 percent), crime (Biden’s approval rating is 38.3 percent), transgender surgery and electric vehicle tax credits (less than 7 percent of 2024 U.S. vehicle sales were electric).
Picking a fight with someone who just won the popular vote — even before he takes office — puts Democrats at odds with America’s largest bloc of voters. And picking these unpopular issues on which to fight makes them look even more radical and elitist.
The recent federal funding fight was another underestimation. Somehow, Democrats didn’t foresee Trump opposing a 1500-page, last-minute bill. Nor did they foresee him prevailing, getting an omnibus continuing resolution pared back to just over 100 pages, passed, and a shutdown avoided.
In both cases, Democrats believe that despite giving Trump leverage, he won’t — or can’t — make use of it.
Trump is now politically stronger than he was eight years ago. He is also more politically savvy. His juxtaposition to the failed Biden administration (expect Biden to tarnish Democrats more before he goes, and then Democrats in deep blue jurisdictions to do the same as they oppose illegal immigration enforcement) will make him stronger still. As a result, Trump’s favorability rating has surged.
Trump is a disrupter. He uses it to keep his opponents off balance. America elected him president for just such disruption. Yet Democrats, who themselves badly need to be disrupted, stubbornly insist, despite all contrary evidence, to treat Trump as they have since 2016.
They simply can’t ‘fess up to the fact that Trump is a political force. It makes no sense, but it is the best inauguration gift that Democrats can give him.
J.T. Young is the author of the new book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left,” from RealClear Publishing. He has more than three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, and OMB, and representing a Fortune 20 company.
