High stakes for Trump rivals at debate

©  AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee

TIME IS RUNNING OUT for Republican presidential candidates hoping to draw a contrast with former President Trump and cut into his big 2024 lead.

Iowa’s caucuses are 68 days away, and while most candidates appearing on stage for the third debate Wednesday night will likely debate again before January, the makeup of the race is largely unchanged from the last face-off.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley appear to be Trump’s closest rivals in polls, but the former president maintains a large lead in surveys nationally and in the early voting states.

DeSantis and Haley will be joined on stage in Miami on Wednesday by Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson did not make the debate stage.

The debate starts at 8 p.m. ET. Trump, who has skipped all the debates, will rally in nearby Hialeah, Fla., about an hour beforehand.

Some context heading into the debate:

• Haley has shown some momentum with increasing survey numbers in recent weeks, and Wednesday’s debate could offer her a chance to draw a contrast with Trump on issues such as foreign policy.
• DeSantis‘s campaign has shifted a substantial amount of resources to Iowa, where he hopes to at least cut into Trump’s lead if not win the caucuses. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) endorsed DeSantis this week.
• Scott‘s campaign manager previewed his debate strategy, suggesting the senator will focus criticism on DeSantis and Haley, along with framing himself as the best-positioned to flip swing states.
• This is the first debate since the Israel-Hamas war began. The Republican Jewish Coalition is co-hosting the event. We’ll be watching how candidates discuss the conflict.
• A fourth debate is scheduled for Dec. 6.

More coverage from The Hill:

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• Hunter Biden and his uncle James Biden have been subpoenaed by the House Oversight Committee, seeking depositions from family members of President Biden amid its impeachment inquiry.
• House Republicans elected Rep. Blake Moore (Utah) to serve as GOP conference vice chair, the junior leadership position previously held by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

• State Department officials are testifying this afternoon before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on U.S. support for Israel (watch here).

• Check out 5 takeaways from Tuesday’s elections from The Hill’s Julia Manchester.

Who has the most at stake in tonight’s GOP debate?

We asked some political experts and Republican strategists to weigh in:

📣 DESANTIS, says Aaron Kall, director of debate for the University of Michigan Debate Program: “He should enjoy a home field advantage and greatly benefit if any local issues are raised by the moderators … With only months until voting begins in Iowa, DeSantis will never have a better opportunity to highlight his successful gubernatorial record and favorably contrast himself with the surging candidacy of Nikki Haley.”

📣 DESANTIS, says Jimmy Centers, Iowa-based Republican strategist: “The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Cable Iowa poll showed that he had stalled, but Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds’ coveted endorsement could give him a shot in the arm if he pairs it with a strong debate performance. If he — or anyone for that matter — can’t catch fire soon and force others to drop out, the Iowa Caucus will look more like a coronation for former President Trump on the path to the nomination.”

📣 SCOTT, says Karen Kedrowski, political science professor at Iowa State University: “I think Senator Tim Scott has the most at stake on Wednesday night. He’s having trouble distinguishing himself from the rest of the ‘also rans.’ DeSantis scored a victory this week with Kim Reynolds’s endorsement and Haley is climbing in the polls. While Haley first appointed Scott to the Senate, there seems to be some bad blood between them now. Watch that dynamic.” 

📣 DESANTIS, says Rina Shah, Republican strategist who identifies herself as the “1st #NeverTrump Delegate”: “Without a shred of doubt, it’s Gov. Ron DeSantis[.] … Having started out with a roar, his campaign is now in the stage where it whimpers. He’s currently part of a trio (with Haley and Ramaswamy) which he knows he has to break out of very soon in order to be able to keep donors pumping cash his way, get lukewarm gop voters behind him, and ultimately secure a path to victory in the early state primaries — all with the aim to knock off Trump for the coveted title of 2024 GOP Presidential Nominee, which is still not in reach for him.“ 

📣 TV NETWORKS, says Patrick Stewart, political science professor at the University of Arkansas and author of “The Audience Decides: Applause-Cheering, Laughter, and Booing during Debates in the Trump Era”: “Before Donald Trump first took the debate stage in August 2015, presidential primary debates were ‘invisible’ to all but the most serious of partisans who gave their time, money, and ultimately votes to candidates based upon tangible differences in political experience, policy positions, and leadership style. With substantially fewer viewers watching the initial 2024 presidential primary debates, when compared to the last two electoral cycles, it appears that the ‘stunt casting’ of political neophytes and comparatively laissez faire approach to moderation might not provide the ratings bonanza hoped for.” 

Ivanka Trump took the stand Wednesday as the state’s final witness in the New York civil fraud case against her father, former President Trump; two of her brothers; and more.

Ivanka Trump was questioned over several documents dating back to 2011 and 2012. She responded many times that she didn’t recall the exchanges. Ivanka was dismissed as a co-defendant earlier this year due to the allegations against her falling outside the statute of limitations.

The Hill’s Ella Lee is reporting from New York here.

The Group of Seven (G7) nations’ foreign ministers released a statement supporting “humanitarian pauses” in the war between Israel and Hamas, as calls for such pauses as well as a farther-reaching ceasefire grow within the U.S. and internationally.

• The G7 — consisting of Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, France, the U.K. and the U.S. — emphasized “Israel’s right to defend itself and its people, in accordance with international law, as it seeks to prevent a recurrence” of Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack.

Related:

©  AP Photo/Michael Dwyer, File

Political advertisers will have to disclose when they use artificial intelligence (AI) in their ads on Facebook and Instagram in some cases, according to a policy update from parent company Meta. Read more here.

“How tonight’s debate can spark a nuanced conversation on crime” — Marc A. Levin, Esq., chief policy counsel for the Council on Criminal Justice. (Read here)

“Democrats need to calm down about Joe Biden” — Max Burns, a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies. (Read here)

9 days until the government funding deadline.

Thursday: President Biden will deliver remarks in Illinois and meet with United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain, union members and Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D).