As Russia continues to wage its brutal war against Ukraine, calls have increased for Washington, including Donald Trump when he assumes the presidency in January, to force a halt to the fighting in order to save Ukrainian lives. For example, in the Nov. 17 New York Times, Megan Stack wrote that Trump should “speed up the inevitable” and push Kyiv into talks — talks that would almost certainly entail Ukraine ceding land to Russia while receiving no meaningful security guarantees in return.
Such calls downplay or arrogantly disregard Ukrainian agency. It will be Ukraine’s choice whether to enter into negotiations and whether to accept a settlement. Ukrainians may not wish to be saved if the settlement terms amount to total capitulation.
As a practical matter, Trump will not be able to force talks or an end to the war. What he can do is end U.S. military and financial assistance to Kyiv. Unfortunately, all appearances suggest that is his intention. That will make Ukraine’s defense more difficult and increase the prospects of Russian victory.
However, an end to American support will not necessarily end the war. The Ukrainian government and many Ukrainians remain determined to defend their freedom. A loss of U.S. assistance would hurt. However, on the eve of the February 2022 Russian attack, Kyiv had no expectation that it would receive the artillery, HIMARS rockets, tanks, F-16s and other arms that the West sent only later. Ukraine’s soldiers got ready to fight with the weapons at hand, while across the country civilians prepared Molotov cocktails.
Too many commentators talk blithely of Ukraine ceding land as if the land were empty. Giving up territory means giving up the Ukrainians who live there. And, make no mistake, Vladimir Putin demands a lot of territory — Crimea and the provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — even though Russia’s army does not even occupy all that territory.
As The Economist recently noted, Russian-occupied areas have experienced a “totalitarian hell.” Russification is the order of the day. “All traces of Ukraine are being expunged.” Ukrainians must take Russian citizenship or face deportation. Expressing any pro-Ukraine sentiment means risking arrest.
Ukrainians understand this. They remember what happened in towns such as Bucha. Some 4,000 residents remained there when the Russian army began a month-long occupation in March 2022. When the Russians retreated, 458 lay dead, many shot or victims of torture. Almost all were civilians.
For Kyiv, ceding land means surrendering Ukrainian citizens to such treatment.
Moreover, plans proffered to settle the war usually combine Ukraine giving up territory with its acceptance of neutrality. The result: a weakened and diminished state that could become victim to another Russian assault any time the Kremlin chose. Moscow also appears to want more, such as a friendly pro-Russian government in Kyiv. It should surprise no one that such a settlement holds little appeal for Ukrainians.
So the Ukrainians continue to fight, even though Russia has had the momentum for much of this year, grinding out gains in eastern Ukraine. The Russians captured some 200 square miles of Ukraine in October, their best monthly total in 2024.
But perspective is important. Two hundred square miles amounts to about 1/1000 of Ukraine’s territory. The Russian army paid a horrific price for those gains — on average 1,500 dead or injured soldiers each day in the month of October. Total Russian casualties since February 2022 come to nearly 700,000. For more perspective, in January 2022, the Russian active-duty military — not just the army, but the entire military — numbered about 1 million. No wonder Putin ordered an increase in the military’s size and a mobilization.
To be sure, the war has proved to be an awful tragedy for Ukraine. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians have died. Ukrainians understandably have grown weary of the conflict. They face a difficult winter. Thus far, however, they have chosen to keep fighting.
Should Kyiv decide to enter negotiations, Washington should support that decision and do what it can to help Ukraine secure the most favorable terms. But Washington should not press Kyiv to begin talks, especially when the Kremlin shows no sign of a good-faith negotiating approach.
The decisions to enter negotiations and ultimately whether to agree to a settlement are, and should be, for Ukrainians to make.
Steven Pifer is an affiliate of Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
