It’s over. He won. She lost. Donald Trump will become the 47th president of the United States.
No lawsuits, no claims of a rigged election or system. No riots or insurrections. No criminal prosecutions. It’s over.
Exit polls showed that many voters, particularly in swing states, were most concerned about the economy. Although Biden’s economic numbers are excellent on a national basis —unemployment at low levels, inflation back to pre-pandemic levels, the stock market soaring, a likely “soft landing” after a fusillade of high interest rates — for many American families, wages just hadn’t caught up with inflation.
The price of groceries is high for them. The price of gas is high for them. The price of toys for their children is high for them. People vote with their pocketbooks.
Immigration was a concern for voters. So was democracy, but does democracy mean voting against a convicted felon and an election denier, or does it mean taking back our country and making America great again? Abortion, the issue that was supposed to take Vice President Kamala Harris over the top, did not. Where were the women in the suburbs with MAGA husbands who secretly cast ballots for Harris? If they were there, their votes weren’t enough.
At the bottom of the list of concerns in exit polling was foreign policy. It should have been the primary concern, since it implicates our national security. Foreign policy used to be bipartisan. The late Republican Sen. Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan famously said that “partisan politics” must stop “at the water’s edge.” No more.
Trump thinks he has the easy solution to our role in the world. He says he will eschew allies, withdraw from NATO, ignore American treaty obligations, encourage Putin to do “whatever the hell” he wants to any NATO country that doesn’t pay up and solve the problems in the Middle East by blowing Iran “to smithereens.” We’ll see whether, once again in office, he means what he said, and said what he means.
As for Ukraine — where, if we continue our support, experts say that the tragedy may end only in a prolonged cease-fire — Trump claims he will settle the war in one day. Tall talk. How does he intend to proceed? Ukraine is bracing for the Trump manifesto of “stop all wars.”
The world situation is dangerous. Escalation is always possible. The use of nuclear weapons looms on the horizon. If Trump allows Putin to succeed with his move on Ukraine, the next tempting morsel on his plate may be the tiny Republic of Moldova.
Moldova was part of the Soviet Union until 1991. It is a poor, landlocked country in eastern Europe, bounded by Romania to the west and Ukraine to the north, east and south. Its population is around 3 million.
In elections over the past few weeks, Moldovans voted to change their constitution to make European Union membership a goal and reelect a pro-EU president to a second four-year term. Moldova is a thorn in Putin’s side.
In both elections, the Biden administration and Putin clashed. America supported Moldova’s membership in the EU and the reelection of President Maia Sandu. Putin sought to undermine the elections and put a Moscow puppet in power. No surprise, as Putin told Russians nearly two decades ago that the collapse of the Soviet empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”
John Kirby, Biden’s national security spokesman, recently said, “The United States will continue to support Moldova and the Moldovan people, and to expose and counter Russian efforts to undermine Moldovan democracy.”
Unlike neighboring Ukraine, where the issue is to be settled on the battlefield, this duel between Washington and Moscow involved covert “soft cultural power,” rather than “hard” military power.
So if Trump withdraws support for Ukraine, what approach will he take towards Moldova? And if Putin folds Moldova into his sphere of influence, what’s next?
In the Oct. 20 election, Moldovans voted “Yes” to join the EU by a razor-thin margin of 50.35 percent, helped largely by votes coming from the diaspora, pro-EU Moldovans living abroad. In country, incumbent President Sandu received only 42.3 percent of the vote and needed a runoff election against a pro-Russian candidate, former Moldova Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo. In the runoff, Sandu got 55.33 percent of the vote and won only because of Moldovans voting from overseas. The pro-Moscow Socialist Party that backed Stoianoglo said it did not view Sandu’s presidency as legitimate, calling her the “president of the diaspora” and alleging systemic fraud. Where have we heard this before?
Like the U.S., Moldova is a deeply polarized nation. Many Moldovans live abroad because of a lack of jobs at home. The expats, along with those in the capital city of Chisinau, mostly favored Sandu and joining the EU; those in rural areas and the pro-Russian separatist regions voted no on EU membership and yes on Putin’s man in Moldova.
Both the elections — the EU referendum and the presidential vote — have drawn allegations of fraud, use of cyber attacks, vote buying (think of Elon Musk here at home) and other actions in order to undermine democratic processes. Again, where have we heard this before?
The U.S. through USAID provided $1.5 million in support of Moldova’s cybersecurity needs. Along with the U.K. and Sweden, we opened a cybersecurity academy in Moldova that is developing a stronger and more capable cyber workforce, deploying critical tools for cyber defense, sharing cyber threat information and incident response and building the resilience of the information environment. Journalist Walter Pincus reports that some of this cyber aid was accelerated and deployed prior to the election.
The American government has a variety of soft-power tools through which it can pursue foreign policy goals, such as supporting allied or friendly foreign countries like Moldova — without the use of force.
Biden congratulated Sandu “on her historic reelection as the President of Moldova.” He said, “For months, Russia sought to undermine Moldova’s democratic institutions and election processes. But Russia failed. The Moldovan people have exercised their democratic right to choose their own future, and they have chosen to pursue a path aligned with Europe and democracies everywhere.”
In Moldova, the West won and Putin lost. In the next four years, let us have more national security outcomes like this one.
James D. Zirin, author and legal analyst, is a former federal prosecutor in New York’s Southern District. He is also the host of the public television talk show and podcast Conversations with Jim Zirin.
