Morning Report — What’s next for the Middle East?

In today’s issue:

• Israel kills Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
• Early votes offer clues for turnout, organization
• Panel conclusion: Overhaul the Secret Service
• Trump seeks federal delay of evidence release

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza has raised big questions for the future of Israel’s wars in the Middle East and whether cease-fire negotiations can get back on track.

Sinwar, the architect of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, was killed Thursday during an Israeli military operation in Gaza alongside two other Hamas militants. Sinwar was Israel’s top target in Gaza, but survived in Hamas’s underground tunnel network for more than a year as the war of his making raged above.  

Sinwar viewed the more than 41,000 Palestinians killed in the ensuing war with Israel “as necessary sacrifices” to achieve his goal of destroying the Jewish state. That appeared to be the inspiration for Hamas launching the attack against Israel on Oct. 7: committing a massacre of such brutality that it would trigger a massive Israeli response. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu celebrated Sinwar’s death, calling the Hamas leader “a mass murderer who killed thousands of Israelis and kidnapped hundreds of our citizens.” But he stopped short of declaring total victory — and suggested the war will continue.

“Today, evil took a heavy blow — the mission ahead of us is still unfinished,” Netanyahu said. He added, “Now it is clear to everyone in Israel and the world why we insisted on not ending the war, why we persisted in the face of all pressure.”

President Biden on Thursday said it was a “good day for Israel, for the United States and for the world.”

“There is now the opportunity for a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike,” he said in a statement. “Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists. But much work remains before us.”

▪ The New York Times: Here’s a look at the remaining leadership of Hamas, which has long been targeted by Israel.

▪ Reuters: Israel has stopped processing requests from traders to import food to Gaza, choking off a track that for the past six months supplied more than half of the enclave’s provisions.

▪ The Washington Post: In Israel, Sinwar’s death is met with joy and renewed hope for hostages.

▪ The New York Times: Sinwar evaded Israeli intelligence for years. Then military trainees came upon him.

WHAT COMES NEXT? Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Hamas has been “incredibly degraded,” adding that Sinwar’s death presents an opportunity for the release of the approximately 100 remaining hostages. But while Sinwar was considered the main obstacle to achieving a deal over the course of a year of negotiations, Netanyahu has been criticized as having moved the goalposts in talks while prioritizing Israel’s military operations over diplomacy. 

Jonathan Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum, told The Hill that Sinwar’s death is “extremely significant” for Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas’s organizational structure. But he cautioned it’s unlikely to signal a new phase in the war, saying Hamas would reconstitute if Israeli troops were to withdraw from Gaza because Netanyahu has not formalized any plans for a postwar governing structure in the enclave. 

Biden and Vice President Harris have been pushing for months for a hostage and cease-fire deal in Gaza, but time is running out to broker an agreement before the president leaves office in January. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is planning to travel to the region in the coming days to discuss ways to push for a deal.

Still, the president — who spoke with Netanyahu on Thursday — expressed optimism. 

“I told him that we were pleased with his actions, and further that, now is the time to move on,” he told reporters in Berlin. “Move on, move toward a cease-fire in Gaza, make sure we’re moving in a direction that we’re going to be in a position to make things better for the whole world.”

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY: 

▪ The average rate on a 30-year mortgage, 6.44 percent, rose for the third consecutive week, reaching its highest level in eight weeks. Mortgage rates have been climbing following a spate of encouraging reports on the U.S. economy. Go figure.

▪ The world’s water cycle is out of balance ”for the first time in human history,” according to a new report.

▪ Winter in the United States may be more varied this year compared to last — with colder and snowier conditions likely in the North and the potential for drier weather than is typical in the South.

LEADING THE DAY

DEMOCRATS WANT HARRIS supporters to cast ballots as early as possible wherever they are, to bank an advantage ahead of Nov. 5. One mark of a well-organized campaign is the ability to check off supporters who voted ahead of Election Day, and to be able to redeploy resources and on-the-ground attention to less reliable supporters who need extra encouragement to get to the polls. The idea is to build momentum, translate enthusiasm to action and leave little to chance. Some Democratic-leaning supporters, particularly young voters, are famously casual about follow-through in presidential election cycles.

As of late Thursday, 8.9 million early votes had been cast, according to nationwide state-reported data tracked by the University of Florida Election Lab and directed by Michael McDonald, a political science professor who began the tally project in 2008. He writes that the most reliable and important information gleaned from early voting data is about turnout.

“Typically, early voting is a blue wave and Election Day is a red wave,” McDonald notes on the lab’s website. “If Democrats are leading in early voting — as they typically do — that is no guarantee Republican Election Day voters won’t swamp the early vote. If Democrats are losing the early vote — as they did in Florida’s 2022 midterm election — that is almost certainly a sign Republicans will win.”

The Hill: More than 600,000 early ballots have been cast in swing state Georgia.

Secure voting: Top Republicans are laying the groundwork to claim the 2024 election is not secure or is unfair due to alleged noncitizen voting. It’s an unsubstantiated theory that has bloomed in conservative circles since Trump won narrowly in 2016. What are the facts?

The former president’s voter fraud commission, created in 2017 and chaired by former Vice President Mike Pence, quietly disbanded in 2018 without finding the alleged widespread voter fraud Trump railed against as he entered office. Contrary to GOP assertions in 2024, there’s little evidence that ineligible people residing in the U.S. seek to cast ballots. U.S. citizenship remains the legal threshold to vote in U.S. elections.

Third-party candidates on ballots in swing states could be spoilers in a close presidential race, Democrats fear, and they want to quash the threat. For months, the party worried about the impact on the contest of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who decided to quit the presidential race to endorse former President Trump. Green Party candidate Jill Stein — accused by Democrats in 2016 of pulling enough votes away to help elect Trump — is back in progressives’ crosshairs. “The threat from Jill Stein’s candidacy is real and growing by the day,” said Doug Gordon, a Democratic election strategist. “Stein was instrumental to Trump getting a first term and she could be key to giving him a second term.”  

The New York Times: Third-party candidates present a wild card. Stein is on the ballot in 38 states, including the battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

2024 CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) previously said he’ll vote for Trump as the GOP nominee. But it’s no secret he’s not a fan of the former president. New details of a famously chilly relationship arose Thursday: private comments by the senator describing Trump as “stupid as well as being ill-tempered” and “a despicable human being,” reported in a new biography by journalist Michael Tackett, “The Price of Power,” to be released a week before Election Day. The Associated Press published the first excerpts. McConnell, 82, will step down from his GOP leadership role in January but will continue to serve in the Senate.

McConnell, in a statement Thursday, referenced two fellow Republican senators, JD Vance of Ohio, the vice presidential nominee, and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, both of whom are strong Trump allies after harshly criticizing him during his first run in 2016. “Whatever I may have said about President Trump pales in comparison to what JD Vance, Lindsey Graham, and others have said about him, but we are all on the same team now,” McConnell said. 

Scorched remarks: Trump used a banquet speech at a tux-clad Catholic charity event in New York City Thursday night to skewer Harris and top Democrats with some off-color asides and profanity. Harris, although invited, was campaigning in Wisconsin and did not attend the dinner.

Cash dash: Democrats in tight House races ride Harris’s fundraising momentum to outpace Republicans.

Abortion: Voters in 10 states will decide next month whether to adopt constitutional amendments that could shape the future of abortion access in their states. If they all pass, total abortion bans and partial bans will be lifted in five states.  

Overseas veterans, military and voting: Republicans are being criticized by veterans and military groups for attempting to restrict the votes of overseas voters and service members through a series of lawsuits in battleground states. 

WHERE AND WHEN

• The House will convene a pro forma session at 10:30 a.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 11 a.m.
• The president is in Berlin today where he met with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Biden received Germany’s highest honor for merit with a full military greeting. 
• Candidate schedules this week: Harris will campaign this afternoon in Grand Rapids, Mich., then Lansing, Mich., and Oakland County, Mich., in the evening. On Saturday, Harris will return to Detroit and Atlanta. Sunday is the vice president’s 60th birthday. Trump holds a rally in Detroit at 7 p.m. On Saturday, Trump will headline a 6 p.m. campaign event in Latrobe, Pa. On Saturday, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will participate in a campaign reception in Illinois, headline a rally in Omaha, Neb., and join a campaign reception there.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press | Evan Vucci

THE SECRET SERVICE needs a major overhaul, according to an independent panel that reviewed the failures leading to the July assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pa. The panel called on the agency to replace its leadership with candidates from the private sector and focus on its protective mission.

The agency had become “bureaucratic, complacent and static,” the panel said. The report highlighted a “lack of ownership” conveyed by the agents interviewed who did not take responsibility in the lead-up to the event or own the failures in the aftermath. The report added they “have done little in the way of self-reflection in terms of identifying areas of missteps, omissions or opportunities for improvement” (The Hill and The Washington Post).

“As we say in the report, this is a zero-fail mission,” Janet Napolitano, former Homeland Security secretary and member of the four-person panel, said in a statement. “For any failure endangers not only the life of the protectee but also the fundamentals of our government itself.”

Ronald Rowe Jr., the acting director of the Secret Service, told NBC News on Thursday he was concerned about the morale of his overworked agents. 

Rowe, who has publicly acknowledged the agency’s failures, said the Secret Service has increased Trump’s protective detail to the highest level and will be working with lawmakers to increase funds for the agency once Congress returns to Washington after the election.

“We’ll continue to work with the department to look at those recommendations that are actionable and feasible to make changes in the Secret Service,” he said. “But we have not been sitting back waiting for reports like this to come out.”

Dig deeper: “An exodus of agents left the Secret Service unprepared for 2024,” The New York Times; “Inside an unprepared Secret Service,” The New York Times “The Daily” podcast; “Zero Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Secret Service,” a 2021 book authored by The Washington Post Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter Carol Leonnig, who discussed her reporting in 2021 HERE. 

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press | John Bazemore

Evidence under wraps until after Election Day? Trump on Thursday asked a federal judge to delay the imminent release of a large cache of special counsel Jack Smith’s evidence against him until after the 2024 election. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan last week ordered the release, which Smith filed as part of an effort to determine whether Trump should be deemed immune from some of the charges he’s facing for attempting to subvert the 2020 election. But Chutkan delayed the effect of her order by a week to give Trump a chance to pursue other legal action

“[I]f the Court immediately releases the Special Counsel’s cherry-picked documents, potential jurors will be left with a skewed, one-sided, and inaccurate picture of this case,” Trump’s attorneys wrote. “Those same potential jurors may not see President Trump’s later responsive filing.”

Trump says the document should be released Nov. 14, at the same time he files his own rebuttal to Smith.

State charges against Trump: Fulton County, Ga., District Attorney Fani Willis (D), in a Tuesday filing, asked a Georgia appeals court to reinstate charges, including three against Trump, in her 2020 election subversion prosecution of the former president and several of his allies.

Judge Scott McAfee in March dismissed the counts, which all relate to alleged efforts to solicit Georgia officials to violate their oaths of office, after finding they lacked sufficient detail about the underlying crime being solicited by the defendants. Trump attorney Steve Sadow, in a statement, said Willis’s brief is “simply incorrect on the law.”

Physician penalties and abortion: A three-judge panel ruled Thursday that Tennessee doctors who provide emergency abortions to protect the life of the mother cannot have their medical licenses revoked or face other disciplinary actions while a lawsuit challenging the state’s sweeping abortion ban continues. The ruling also outlined specific pregnancy-related conditions that would now qualify as “medical necessity exceptions” under the ban, which currently does not include exceptions for fetal anomalies or for victims of rape or incest.

Recusal requested: Ryan Routh, the man charged with attempting to assassinate Trump at his Florida golf course last month, asked federal Judge Aileen Cannon on Thursday to recuse herself from the case because the former president appointed her to the bench and has praised her handling of his classified documents indictment.

Execution delay: The Texas Supreme Court late Thursday halted an inmate’s execution amid a legal showdown. Judge Jessica Mangrum of Travis County, Texas, ordered a temporary delay earlier Thursday in the scheduled execution of Robert Roberson, a Texas man convicted of killing his 2-year-old daughter. Members of the Texas House argued he should be allowed to testify at a legislative hearing on Monday. 

OPINION 

■ How the Biden team plans to build peace from Sinwar’s death, by Thomas L. Friedman, columnist, The New York Times.

■ Harris champions a vital mission: More Black male teachers in our schools, by Phelton Moss, opinion contributor, The Hill.

THE CLOSER 

© The Associated Press | Lai Seng Sin

And finally … 👏👏👏 Congratulations tothis week’s Morning Report Quiz winners! Cheered by a bit of good news in this week’s headlines, we asked for some smart guesses about pandas at the National Zoo. 

Here’s who triumphed by going 4/4: Rick Schmidtke, Lou Tisler, Laura Rettaliata, Randall S. Patrick, Carmine Petracca, Savannah Petracca and John Ciorciari. 

🐼 With much fanfare, Washington’s Smithsonian National Zoo welcomed a pair of young giant pandas from China on Tuesday. The pandas that had been at the zoo since 2000 returned to China with their cub last year when their lease expired.

🐼 A headline description often used about bear ties between the governments of China and the U.S. is panda diplomacy.

🐼 Former President Richard Nixon made a trip to China that resulted in the arrival of the first giant pandas at the National Zoo.

🐼 The pandas’ primary diet is supplied to the National Zoo by a Virginia farm under the auspices of the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute. Zoo pandas consume about 100 pounds of bamboo per animal per day, according to data provided this week to reporters by the institute, including to TV’s KARE11 (video) and NBC4. (Note: By far the majority of this week’s puzzlers guessed the zoo’s pandas eat half that amount of bamboo daily, which would otherwise be a fine guess for some pandas in the wild.)

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