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Business & Economy
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Trump plan has $4 trillion price tag: analysis
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Former President Trump’s spending and tax proposals could add more than $4 trillion to the nation’s deficits over a decade, according to an analysis released Monday.
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© AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson
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The estimate from the Penn Wharton Budget Model analyzes several of Trump’s economic proposals, including extending key provisions in the 2017 tax reform bill, eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits and reducing the corporate income tax rate.
Analysts estimated the slate of proposals would add a net $5.8 trillion to primary deficits “on a conventional basis” from 2025 to 2034, compared to $4.1 trillion on a dynamic basis, when accounting for “economic feedback effects.”
In a cost breakdown of the basket of proposals, extending expiring individual income tax provisions from the 2017 legislation had the largest price tag.
Analysis estimating the effort could “add $3.4 trillion to deficits (before interest costs) over the next ten years.”
“Restoring the original TCJA regime for taxing business investment adds another $623 billion to increase the total cost of TCJA extension to more than $4 trillion,” the analysis stated.
The cost of doing away with taxes on Social Security benefits could be as high as $1.2 trillion over a 10-year period, the analysis also projects, while reducing the corporate tax rate to 15 percent could cost $595 billion over the same time frame.
“Low, middle, and high-income households in 2026 and 2034 all fare better under the campaign proposals on a conventional basis,” the analysis stated, though it added that “these conventional gains and losses do not include the additional debt burden on future generations who must finance almost the entirety of the tax decreases.”
The Hill’s Aris Foley has more here.
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Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter, we’re Aris Folley and Taylor Giorno — covering the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.
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Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:
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Top lawmakers on China panel press US, drone company CEO on DJI threat
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The top lawmakers on the House China select committee sent letters this month to the Commerce Department and the head of a newly formed American business that has alleged ties to Chinese drone maker Da Jiang Innovations (DJI).
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Bottom Line: Railroad giant lobbies up for drones
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Drones BNSF Railway Company hired Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld to lobby on issues related to “U.S. drone security solution.” The rail giant has been building out its drone operation for years to inspect infrastructure, incidents and other assets, securing a novel Federal Aviation Administration waiver to fly drones beyond the visual line of sight. Charlie Johnson, a former law clerk on the Democratic staff of the House …
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Harris campaign highlights housing plan in new ad
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Vice President Harris’s campaign unveiled an ad Tuesday that highlights her plan to lower housing costs and end the housing shortage, with the Democratic nominee putting a personal spin on the proposal.
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Upcoming news themes and events we’re watching:
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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is set to speak at the Global Fintech Festival in Mumbai, India, on payments at 1:15 a.m. E.T. on Wednesday.
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Branch out with more stories from the day:
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Stock market today: Dow Jones Industrial Average inches up to another record high in mixed trading
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Wall Street notched another record high Tuesday, even as major stock indexes barely budged after a …
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Business and economic news we’ve flagged from other outlets:
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- S&P 500, Nasdaq close slightly higher Tuesday, lifted by Nvidia shares (CNBC)
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Paying money to get your own cash: Some big retailers charge for cash-back requests, federal agency finds (CNN)
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Feds killed plan to curb Medicare Advantage overbilling after industry opposition (CBS News)
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Top stories on The Hill right now:
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Texas GOP doubles down on fraud claims as Trump, Cruz leads shrink
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AUSTIN – Texas Republicans are doubling down on claims that Democrats in the state’s biggest cities are attempting to steal the 2024 election – a contest in which the GOP’s leads in the Senate and presidential races are increasingly narrowing. Read more
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Texas removes 1 million people from voter rolls
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More than a million people have been removed from Texas’s voter registration rolls since the last presidential election, the state announced Monday. Read more
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Opinions related to business and economic issues submitted to The Hill:
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A student loan debt tsunami is coming. Here’s how to minimize the impact.
- Poverty isn’t neglect, and money isn’t always the answer
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You’re all caught up. See you tomorrow!
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