Democrats are up against a daunting challenge to hold onto their Senate majority this cycle.
Nearly all of the competitive races this cycle have been held by Democrats, and Republicans are virtually guaranteed one flip in West Virginia’s open seat that’s being vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin (I).
Republicans would just need to flip one more seat or win the White House to gain the upper hand in the upper chamber, where Democrats have held a modest majority in recent years.
Recent polling, including new surveys out this week, suggests much like the race for the White House, the ultimate outcome remains too close to call.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report this week shifted the Pennsylvania Senate race into the “toss-up” category, positioning it more competitively. Sen. Bob Casey (D) holds a modest lead at 48.4 percent to Republican David McCormick‘s 45.1 percent, in the polling average tracker from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. The shift followed two fiery televised debates between Casey and McCormick.
Meanwhile, the Nebraska Senate race also has shifted to a more competitive posture from likely to “lean Republican.” Polls there show Dan Osborn, an independent running with Democratic backing, at 47.8 percent to Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R) 46.4 percent.
The only other Republican-held seat currently marked competitive is Texas where Democrats have put efforts, including a multi-million ad buy, toward an attempt to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Cruz and Rep. Colin Allred (D) are in a virtual dead heat, according to a poll released Wednesday. The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found Cruz just ahead of Allred by 1 percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided.
Cruz now leads Allred by about 2.6 percentage points in the polling average tracker from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. The shift toward Allred came after the candidates took part in their only face-to-face debate last week.
Current Democratic seats representing Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin also have been rated as up for grabs, and Cook’s analysts have marked Republicans likely to pick up Montana on top of West Virginia.
Here’s where the races stand, based on the latest polls:
Montana: Republican businessman Tim Sheehy is averaging 51.4 percent to Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) 44.1 percent.
Ohio: Republican Bernie Moreno and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown are locked in a dead heat in the polls at about 46 percent each.
Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is up 48.2 percent to Republican challenger Eric Hovde’s 46.1 percent.
Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) leads 47.3 percent to former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers’s 44.1 percent.
Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) leads 50.1 percent to Republican Kari Lake’s 42.8 percent.
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is up 48.9 percent to Republican challenger Sam Brown’s 42.7 percent.
